United States shale oil stock is about to bankrupt due to the Saudi Arabia and Russia’s price war. Crude oil prices are collapsing. Therefore, Saudi Aramco decides to increase oil production to 12.3 million barrels per day in April. This is quite surprising acceleration of the war for market share. That level of output is believed to be beyond what Aramco can produce on a sustainable basis. In other words, Saudi Arabia is going all-out to flood the market.
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi energy minister doesn’t seem to be interested in meeting with Russia anytime soon. Prince Abdulaziz told Reuters that it will be only failure to see the sense for holding meetings in May-June. This meeting would only show their failure in attending to what they should have done in a crisis like this and taking the necessary actions. According to Energy Intelligence, Saudi Arabia is conducting budgeting exercises to game out scenarios in which oil crashes to between $12 to $20 per barrel, and will even look at an extreme scenario in which oil falls below $10.
Russia says it can withstand the price war at $25 to $30 per barrel for 6 to 10 years. Neither side appears willing to budge. According to the written note by Raymond James, Monday will go down as one of the bleakest market days in the history of the energy sector. It seems like capitulation day and it certainly feels like it is hard to imagine how much worse sentiment can get.